Monday, 5 December 2011

Extracts from the past: On Pasture Bay Beach


Whilst looking at old paperwork from the history of the project I found this very interesting paragraph.

‘The beach at Pasture Bay is historical and natural, although it has been greatly modified in the last century by man. Pasture Bay forms a cul-de-sac facing into the easterly prevailing winds, with extensive shallow reefs of coral and marine algae occurring immediately offshore. Wave chains entering the bay from the east are deflected to the southwest by Homer Point so as to apply maximum energy levels to the central portions of the Bay. Beach sand is calcareous, derived primarily from fragments of calcareous algae and, to a lesser extent, from coral. Historically, Pasture Bay beach vegetation was a mixed maritime forest community of trees and shrubs growing densely to the high water line. Sand, moved by the wind and waves onto the beach, was trapped within a few meters of the water’s edge by the dense vegetation. Wind rows of algae and marine grasses were deposited on the high tide line, providing a source of nutrient rich organics to be mixed into the sand. A sloping dune of 1 to 3 meters in height, stabilized by the shrubs and the trees, rose gradually from the water’s edge to provide the nesting habitat most preferred by Caribbean hawksbills. Because of the protection … the shoreline probably did not fluctuate by more than a meter in any year. An extensive deposit of sand was held by the beach forest to provide continuously available nesting habitat, regardless of the erosional or depositional cycle of the shoreline.’
‘At some point in the previous decades, the maritime forest was cleared from Pasture bay for grazing sheep … recreational access to a sandy beach with scattered clumps of seagrapes … . As a result foreshore (0 -10m) beach sand was blown back and away from the high water line, forming a vegetated rear dune too distant from the water for the hawksbill to use. The problem has been exacerbated  … by intense cleaning of the beach and berm … such that no blade of grass or fragment of leaf was left to slow the wind with its drifting sand. Without dynamic offshore sand bars to replenish the loss, existing supplies of sand were robbed from the lateral ends of the Pasture Bay, and the overall shoreline has receded, perhaps as much as 10m from historic dimensions.  By 1986, conditions had deteriorated until significant portions of the beach were rendered unsuitable for nesting because of exposed limestone rock, cobble beach, eroded root mats, and permanent pasture.

Pasture Beach, Middle section c.2000. The planting of the veg beds. ©JBHP.

Pasture Bay Beach, North end c.1990. ©JBHP

 The text is an extract from :
Hoyle, M. and Richardson, J.I. (1993). Survivorship, Mortality, Recruitment and Reproductive biology and Behavior of Adult Female Hawksbill Sea Turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) Nesting at Pasture Bay, Long Island, Antigua, W.I. 1987 – 1992. Technical Report prepared by The Georgia Sea Turtle Cooperative, Institute of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia. 25 July 1993.

Tuesday, 15 November 2011

The season in numbers...

442 records, 237 nests, 178 false crawls, 27 nights with no activity 
63 turtles, 14 neophytes
155 eggs per nest, 81% hatch success
29 000 hatchlings produced - some still to come!
One of the crew! ©D.Tilley

Tuesday, 8 November 2011

10 days to go!

It has taken 43 nights to go from 200 nests to a mighty ... 230.
In this time we have had and extra 7 turtles come to shore. With 10 days to go, we are stuck on 230 nests and 63 turtles.  This is the lowest tally in the last 5 years.

We are expecting 5 turtles over the next 10 days, so we may reach a mighty 235 nests by the end of the season!

How ironic is it that on the patrol that followed my typing this, we had a turtle come up... and nest!
Shark bait is the name, and we have 231 nests!

Shark bait: a bite taken out of the front right flipper. ©D.Tilley

Sunday, 30 October 2011

On beach plants and lights.


In a natural environment, i.e. with little or no human development, the windward side of Caribbean islands tends to contain sandy beaches, which are backed by more or less of an extent of dunes. These beaches and dunes are inhabited and used by various species, including sea turtles. The vegetation on these beaches typically constitutes a sere where the vegetation changes along an environmental gradient. Closest to the water, there is the pioneer zone with grasses, succulents and creepers. Further inland, there is a coastal shrub with species such as bay cedar, or inkberry, which in turn is backed by the tropical hardwood hammock. This last zone, also referred to as maritime or coastal forest typically contains large trees such as seagrape, West Indian almond, canella, and manchineel, and is the most stable zone and can be regarded as the climax of the ecological succession.
An undisturbed beach. Green Island, Antigua. ©D.Tilley
In general vegetated areas – excluding the coconut palm – are undesirable on beaches and usually make way for human development. However, these ecosystems play vital roles in terms of biodiversity and in terms of coastal protection. The pioneer zone is frequently washed out by storm surges but the rest of the beach usually fears much better as the root systems hold down sand and the vegetation reduces wind erosion.

Vegetation also plays a vital role for hawksbill turtles. Unlike any other species of sea turtle, hawksbills tend to favour vegetated areas when selecting nest sites. This may seem counter intuitive, as low branches could impede the turtles, roots make it more difficult to dig and can potentially trap hatchlings. However, it seems to work and has done for some 60 million years. In terms of root related problems, empirical evidence seems to suggest that the beloved coconut palm is a much greater problem to turtles than any other plant species on the beach. 

Vegetation is important to hawksbill turtles as it helps maintain suitable incubation temperatures and thus keeps a more balanced sex ratio. Indeed, the incubation temperature determines the sex of the hatchlings with pivotal temperature, where there will be a 50-50 M/F sex ratio, at about 29.2°. Hawksbills dig relatively shallow nests, at about 50cm, but they are in keeping with their relatively small size and thus the shade cover provided by vegetation buffers the heat of the sun.
Nesting under cover of vegetation provides protection for the adult and stable incubation temperatures. ©D.Tilley/JBHP
Moreover, the vegetation on the beach helps block out light pollution. Turtles use various environmental cues to orientate, and light is used to find water. On a natural beach, the lightest point will always be the horizon over the water. Turtles have been using this as a cue for millions of years, and it has clearly worked for them. Problems arise with human development and lights; a very simple solution – but not always practical - is to switch the lights off, alternatively using different light fittings and specific low intensity light bulbs – often more expensive – can help. Of course there is another solution: leave the beach vegetation in place.
Tall trees not only help maintain the stability of the beach, but also cut out the glare in the sky which as is a serious problem for turtles - and star gazers – and a difficult one to resolve.

Light pollution. ©D.Tilley/JBHP
The shorter coastal shrub cuts out low level lighting – i.e. the house lights. The direct consequence of light pollution is disorientation of adult turtles and hatchlings which in most cases leads to the death of the animals. Adults fair a better chance, but some have close escapes.
Hatchlings in pool after being disorientated by light. ©D.Tilley/JBHP
Hatchlings crawling around a light fixture 75m away from the nest. ©D.Tilley/JBHP
It must be noted than human development doesn't have to be detrimental to nesting turtles; selective pruning and planting, can help mitigate the impact of coastal development. This of course combined with appropriate light fixtures.
Tiki hut and sun beds in front of coastal forest ©D.Tilley/JBHP
It is always a sad day when trees are felled and coastal scrub is removed.


Looking seaward, before large sections of vegetation were removed. ©D.Tilley/JBHP
Looking seaward, after large sections of vegetation were removed. ©D.Tilley/JBHP


More information on lights:

Edit: November 6th. Some of the offending lights have now been switched off, which is a good thing. The street lights however are still on, and will remain on. The vegetation that once obscured them from the beach and thus from hatchlings is gone and will take years to recover, if it is allowed to do that. I have my doubts.

Friday, 7 October 2011

Experts Identify World’s Most Threatened Sea Turtle Populations

Despite recent successes in conservation and progress being made on beach here on Jumby Bay, in Barbados or Puerto Rico, this report serves as a reminder that turtles still face many threats both on land and at sea. Legislation in Trinidad has just been changed granting turtles year round protection; but still too many countries do not afford turtles with adequate protection as here in Antigua for instance. Moreover incidental catch cannot be legislated. We have lost some individuals to fishing gear, and no doubt some to poaching.

This article was published on the IUCN web site on September 29th. 
 
Top sea turtle experts from around the globe have discovered that almost half (45%) of the world’s threatened sea turtle populations are found in the northern Indian Ocean. The study also determined that the most significant threats across all of the threatened populations of sea turtles are fisheries bycatch, accidental catches of sea turtles by fishermen targeting other species, and the direct harvest of turtles or their eggs for food or turtle shell material for commercial use.

The recent report, produced by IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) Marine Turtle Specialist Group (MTSG) and supported by Conservation International (CI) and the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation (NFWF), is the first comprehensive status assessment of all sea turtle populations globally. The study, designed to provide a blueprint for conservation and research, evaluated the state of individual populations of sea turtles and determined the 11 most threatened populations, as well as the 12 healthiest populations.

12 healthiest populations.
“This assessment system provides a baseline status for all sea turtles from which we can gauge our progress on recovering these threatened populations in the future,” explained Roderic Mast, Co-Chair of the MTSG, CI Vice President, and one of the paper’s authors. “Through this process, we have learned a lot about what is working and what isn’t in sea turtle conservation, so now we look forward to turning the lessons learned into sound conservation strategies for sea turtles and their habitats.”

Five of the world’s 11 most threatened species of sea turtles are found in the northern Indian Ocean, specifically threatened populations of both Loggerhead Turtles (Caretta caretta) and Olive Ridley Turtles (Lepidochelys olivacea) are found in the northern Indian Ocean in waters and on nesting beaches within Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of countries such as India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.. Other areas that proved to be the most dangerous places for sea turtles were the East Pacific Ocean (from the USA to South America) and East Atlantic Ocean (off the coast of western Africa).
11 most threatened populations.
“The report confirms that India is a home to many of the most threatened sea turtles in the world,” said Dr. B. C. Choudhury, head of the Department of Endangered Species Management at the Wildlife Institute of India and a contributor to the study. “This paper is a wake-up call for the authorities to do more to protect India's sea turtles and their habitats to ensure that they survive."
The study also highlighted the 12 healthiest sea turtle populations in the world, which are large and currently populations facing relatively low threats. Five species, such as the Hawksbill Turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata) and the Green Turtle (Chelonia mydas) have populations among these dozen thriving habitats which include nesting sites and feeding areas in Australia, Mexico and Brazil. Other areas that harbor healthy turtle populations include the Southwest Indian Ocean, Micronesia and French Polynesia.

“Before we conducted this study, the best we could say about sea turtles was that six of the seven sea turtle species are threatened with extinction globally,” said Dr Bryan Wallace, Director of Science for the Marine Flagship Species Program at CI, and lead author for the paper. “But this wasn’t very helpful for conservation because it didn’t help us set priorities for different populations in different regions. Sea turtles everywhere are conservation-dependent, but this framework will help us effectively target our conservation efforts around the world.”

Saturday, 24 September 2011

Ophelia

Another Tropical Storm out at sea. Ophelia. With the very first predictions showing she was coming towards Antigua we waited expectantly to see her path. She is tracking well north of us. Nothing to see, nothing to worry about. 
Satellite image and projected path of Ophelia. www.meteo.gp
Maybe a bit of storm surge? Listening to the (French) news this morning (Friday), I caught the weather forecast and they mentioned the Caribbean weather. Une fois n'est pas coutume. Courtesy of Guadeloupe, Martinique and French Guiana. They had warnings for strong swells. Well I guess we are seeing them. Or it is just exceptionally high tide – similar to those of TS Irene and Maria this year.
Storm surge / swell? ©D.Tilley/JBHP
On the second patrol of the night, we find a turtle down on the eastern end of the beach (-4). She has a twisted flipper and has difficulty digging. I start to help whilst Rob walks up the beach. A few minutes later the radio crackles into life. ‘Dom, there is a girl laying at 20. She’s a neophyte. And she is in the water’. No urgency then. Nicola – the EAG team leader – takes over the digging duties whilst I sprint up the beach. 400m in soft sand (mixed with sargassum and rocks in places) along with the swell slapping the legs took all of two minutes. I am out of shape; that was hard!


Sargassum along Pasture Beach. ©D.Tilley/JBHP

The turtle, we shall refer to as Ophelia from now on, had barely made it out of the water; only her head and fore flippers were on dry sand. 

Ophelia nesting in water. ©D.Tilley/JBHP
She made no effort to crawl up the bank – it is steep, it is difficult, but not impossible. She decided she had made enough of an effort, or she was desperate. We aren’t sure how much of a nest she dug as the waves were crashing onto her rear end and filling the ‘nest’ with water. Nevertheless she was laying. And seemed quite happy. Rob rapidly diving in to save the eggs whilst I work her up. She gets her jewellery, measurements are done and a tissue sample taken. 

Saving the eggs. ©D.Tilley/JBHP
After about 10 minutes she decides starts to cover. It is comical. She is trying to put wet sand into a hole, which is already full of wet sand and the waves keep washing her rear flipper clean. She manages to prop her front end up whilst undermining her rear end. She is now tipping dangerously and risks flipping herself over. Rob relocates the eggs to safer grounds; 139 of them with 26 of them fused in pairs. As I get back to the first girl, she is just about to lay. Nicola stays in position and starts counting the eggs. She lays 149 that fit perfectly in the nest. Good work Momma!
Back up with Ophelia, Rob gently rotates her 90° so she doesn’t flip herself over. Undeterred she carries on masking for a few minutes before slowly making it back to sea.
Welcome to Pasture Beach Ophelia.

Tuesday, 20 September 2011

200!

200 nests on Pasture beach so far this season, from 56 turtles!
My initial optimism faded long ago and I now doubt that we will reach the 2010 levels. And I think we will be closer to 2005 for total number of turtles.
Where have the neophytes gone? what is going on out there?

Sunday, 18 September 2011

Mid season update

For a quarter of a century, the JBHP has been monitoring the nesting population of hawksbill turtles on Pasture Beach.  Following a slight drop in nesting activity during 2010, we hoped a surge in activity would mark the project’s25th anniversary.
However, the first half of the 2011 nesting season has followed a similar trend to the first half of the 2010 season: less activity, with an especially low presence of first-time nesters. From June 1st to August 31st, a total of 178 nests from 55 individuals were recorded. By comparison, we observed 31 more nests and 10 more individuals by the mid-point of the record-setting 2009. Only 11 individuals are new nesters, or neophytes, compared to 21 at this point in 2009. The observed decline may be related to events affecting the beach 15 to 20 years ago or more recent changes to the coral reefs where hawksbills feed. Some annual fluctuation is expected in the number of nesting turtles; this drop doesn’t necessarily represent a decline in the long-term trend of the population. It’s possible, however, that the JB nesting population has stabilized; factors such as the health of coral reefs may be impacting the ability of the marine environment to support higher numbers of turtles.
Evolution of the number of total nesters (in blue) and neophytes (in red) from 1987 to 2010.
As of mid-July, the first nests of the season started hatching, and thus far an estimated 5,200 hatchlings have scurried across the beach and entered the surf! Waves of resort guests joined the turtle team on the beach several times a week. EAG (Environmental Awareness Group) Turtle Watches also resumed on Friday nights, giving us the opportunity to share sea turtles with both tourists and Antiguans.

Several interesting characters on the beach have left lasting memories for the field team and guests. Deneb, WH5640, who disappeared in 2008 after laying only 1 nest of 40 eggs, returned for a second nesting season. During a torrential downpour in July, we confirmed her identity, checking her lone tag 3 times in disbelief. She has deposited two nests so far this season, one of which contained a record 222 eggs (perhaps she was making up for the 40 eggs in 2008).

Two mature ladies, PPN064 (tagged in 1988) and PPN075 (tagged in 1989) have deposited a combined 7 nests so far this season. PPN064 is on her 11th nesting season, making her one of the most prolific nesters on Jumby Bay. PPN075 is on her 7th nesting season. And finally, WH5780, a neophyte tagged at the end of June, happens to be the largest hawksbill ever recorded on Jumby Bay. The curved shell length of neophytes averages 83 cm; however, ‘Titanic Star’ (as she was dubbed by guests) measured in at 98.5cm!
During the past several months, unprecedented amounts of Sargassum have washed ashore on JB and across the Caribbean. This phenomenon, stretching even as far as the coast of West Africa, is thought to be due to a shift in ocean currents which has carried the Sargassum further South and West than usual.

Pasture Beach awash with Sargassum (D. Tilley)

Again this season, we were sadly reminded of the threat that fishing poses to marine turtles. A JB turtle originally tagged in 2003, who had deposited one nest this season, washed ashore dead on Blue Waters Beach in mid-August. As she presented no signs of obvious trauma, we assume that she drowned, mostly likely as a result of fishing gear. Unfortunately, the body was too decomposed to conduct a necropsy.
The last 25 years of protection granted to the turtles of Jumby Bay has undoubtedly contributed to the population’s increase. JB is one of only a handful of sites across the Caribbean documenting such growth in hawksbills. The Critically Endangered turtle continues to decline on a global scale, facing numerous threats ranging from the degradation of coral reefs and nesting grounds to illegal harvest and unintended capture in fishing gear. Fortunately, at Jumby Bay, hawksbills are in good hands!  The continued maintenance of turtle-friendly beaches, by preserving maritime vegetation, ensuring adequate sand depth and keeping the shore rubbish-free, will continue to provide a healthy and productive nesting environment.
We are very grateful to be surrounded by a community of support and encouragement. We thank you all for making this extraordinary project possible.
To the next 25 years! See you on the beach!

Thursday, 15 September 2011

short video





Brought to you by the South Walton Community Council and the Environmental Awareness Group (EAG).

Friday, 9 September 2011

Good luck little one!


Over the last few days Tropical Storm Maria has been slowly but surely making her way towards the Leeward Islands. The only unknown is how strong she will be. So we took a ride down to the beach to get an idea of what it is looking like just before she hits.
On that front, the swell is coming up high – roughly 2 m higher than it has been – and vast amounts of fresh sargassum have made their way into the bay and are starting to get washed up.

Freshly arrived sargassum. © D. Tilley / JBHP
Walking past a nest that emerged in the early hours, we noticed a hatchling in the top of the nest. It was perfectly still and the initial thought was that it was dead.

On its way out. © D. Tilley / JBHP

So we picked him up and suddenly it started to frantically move its flippers. It was very much alive. We put it onto the sand and off it went, slowly at first but after a few steps, it started crawling very fast.
Avoiding the sargassum. © D. Tilley / JBHP
Avoiding the washed up bits of sargassum it made it to the water. The strong waves seemed to encourage it; with increased flipper rate it dived under the waves and came up the other side to get a breath of air, and off it went to start its ‘lost years’ life.

Good luck little one. ©D. Tilley / JBHP

Hatchlings face many threats, be it natural or anthropogenic; this one seems to have challenging weather to contend with for its first day out at sea.

Good luck little one...

Saturday, 27 August 2011

Predictions, round 2!


At just past the season half way mark we have two new entrants to pool for estimating the number of neophytes and the total number of turtles that will start laying before November 15th.


Total
Neophytes
Kate
78
28
Jepson
75
25
Katrina
76
22
Seth
75
21
Mark
69
19
Dom
81
30
Rob
69
14
Alex
72
17


Rob and Alex cannot win the top prize – 2 coconuts and a mango so far in the basket!

Original predictions are here!

Wednesday, 17 August 2011

A loss in the population

We just received news that one of the Jumby girls was found washed up on the beach at Blue Waters on mainland Antigua. She was tagged in 2003 and was only on her second nesting season and deposited one nest this year. The cause of death is unknown and the body has been buried. It is possible that she drowned, as there were no visible signs of injury.

Stranded hawksbill turtle. Photo J. Prince

Monday, 1 August 2011

July update

The month of July has seen an extra 13 turtles start their nesting seasons, with 73 extra nests being deposited. This leaves us with a total of 45 turtles and 120 nests so far this season.  The first hatchlings have also scurried across the sand and into the ocean. Only 2 extra neophytes have been recorded, but we hold high hopes to see the numbers bolstered by the end of the season. July saw the greatest number of nests deposited in one night, with 9 nests for only 4 false crawls.

There is still a positive trend in nests outnumbering unsuccessful attempts; the turtles have been nesting across all sections of the beach but seem to have shifted from the Northern end back towards the center of the beach. The area between the leaning palm and Bananaquit accounts for nearly 20% of all the nests deposited this season; in 2009 and 2010 that same section accounted for only 10% of the nests. 
Hatchling in water.  D. Tilley

Sunday, 10 July 2011

Identifying turtles





Neophytes (turtles assumed to be nesting for the first time) are given tags and a unique drill pattern in the back of their shell. Holes are drilled through the translucent part of the supracaudal scutes, where there is no vascular tissue.

Sunday, 3 July 2011

1 month down, 5 to go!


Photo (by Dominic Tilley): WE5252 returning to sea at 5:30AM on June 30th, 2011.

The Jumby Bay Hawksbill Project’s 25th season has begun rapidly, with 32 turtles identified after only a month of patrolling. Preseason patrols in May revealed 8 nests, bringing the total to 56 nests. Despite changes in beach landscape due to erosion and seaweed buildup in the off-season, turtles have been nesting more successfully this year. So far this season, successful nest attempts have outnumbered unsuccessful attempts or ‘false crawls’, contrary to what has been shown in previous years. Turtles have been nesting across all sections of Pasture Beach, even where activity has traditionally been sporadic (e.g. the middle of the beach containing vegetation islands).

5 of the 32 individuals are first-time nesters, and were given flipper tags and unique drill patterns in their shells for future identification. An additional 7 are second-time nesters, and another 9 are third-time nesters, providing evidence that young mothers compose a substantial part of nesting cohorts on Jumby Bay. Several veteran mothers have also shown up this season, including PPN075, tagged in 1989 and on her 7th nesting season, QQB933, tagged in 1991 and on her 9th nesting season, and QQZ108, tagged in 1993 and on her 8th nesting season.

Looking forward to a busy season!

Turtles in the news

An interesting article on the BBC web site, reported the stranding of tens of turtles of the Queensland coast in Australia. Reading the article, which is accompanied by a beautiful Leatherback picture, we find out that the turtles are likely to be starving and or cold stunned. Yasi, a category 5 Hurricane, struck the Queensland coast in early February 2011, damaging the barrier reef and the seagrass beds.

Picture linked in the BBC article - Leatherback turtle.

Well leatherbacks don’t eat seagrass so what is the problem? 
The last paragraph reveals that:

‘The coastal waters of Queensland are important breeding grounds for several species of marine turtles, including the Loggerhead, Hawksbill and Flatback.’

Hawksbills mainly eat sponges, Loggerheads feed on invertebrates, so it leaves us with the Flatback, Natator depressus. They have a varied diet including seagrass and other mollusks and jelly fish; so surely one food source being destroyed shouldn’t be a cause to them washing up...

No content with the article and the explanation, and having a feeling that the article may be talking about Green turtles, a few minutes investigation find an article on abc Far NorthQueensland. Now they should have a bit more information… and they do:

"The seagrass has been destroyedand these animals, the green [turtles], that live off it are are literallystarving," Dr Gilbert said.

So Yasi seems to be the culprit, but the victims, as suspected were the Greens!
Green turtles mainly eat seagrass and their destruction during the hurricane is meaning they are going hungry. However seagrass beds face many threats, not only hurricanes and in years to come this sort of thing may become a more regular occurrence.

edit December 5th: Seabeds recover, turtle strandings down.

Tuesday, 14 June 2011

2 weeks in!


Although official patrolling began June 1st, early patrols since mid-May revealed 8 pre-season nests. Now at the 2 week mark, we are up to 20 nests and 13 turtles. 3 of these individuals are first-time nesters, who were given flipper tags and a unique drill in the back of their shell for future identification. And 2 of these girls have been nesting for 2 decades: PPN075 was tagged in 1989 and is currently on her 7th nesting season and QQB933 was tagged in 1991 and is on her 9th nesting season!

Photo showing Pasture Beach under the (almost full) moon on 13 June (by K. Levasseur).

Thursday, 26 May 2011

Artificial light from afar


Even on an isolated island with very little artificial light, a nesting beach can still be affected by light pollution, as seen in the above photo (photo by K. Levasseur). Light from mainland Antigua is approximately 2km away, glowing behind the beach.

Even the faintest light on a dark night can disorient sea turtles, especially hatchlings, who emerge from the sand typically at night and crawl towards the lightest horizon to find the sea. On a natural beach unaffected by artificial lighting, the lightest point on the horizon is that over water, opposite dark dunes and vegetation backing the beach.

Wednesday, 11 May 2011


With 3 weeks left until the 2011 nesting season's official start, and an interesting drop in neophyte number last season, we would like to give our official estimates of this season's turtle numbers:

Total Neophytes

Kate 78 28
Jepson 75 25
Katrina 76 22
Seth 75 21
Mark 69 19
Dom 81 30
Carol


Any other guesses?